Does The Superforecasters Book Include Practical Exercises?

Okay, here’s the long, nerdy take I like to give when friends ask me this — 'Superforecasting' is not a workbook full of step-by-step drills in the way a language textbook might be, but it is very practice-oriented. The authors weave lots of concrete techniques through the narrative: how to break questions into smaller parts, how to use base rates, how to update with new information, and how to keep score. Throughout the book you'll find real examples from the Good Judgment Project, mini case studies of forecasting tournaments, and descriptions of specific habits the best forecasters adopt, like keeping a prediction log and measuring calibration.

What I found most useful were the practical recommendations at chapter ends and the repeated emphasis on behaviors you can actually do: make many small, timed predictions, record probabilities rather than binary calls, decompose vague questions, look for relevant base-rate data, and systematically update your beliefs. The book doesn't hand you a checklist called "Do This 1–10 Every Day," but it gives you the scaffolding to build your own training routine. If you want guided practice, combine reading 'Superforecasting' with platforms like 'Good Judgment Open' or with exercises from 'How to Measure Anything' and you'll get the feedback loop the book talks about.

Personally, I treat the book as both inspiration and a playbook: I highlight bits, then run weekend mini-tournaments with friends, track Brier scores, and set tiny goals (like better calibration on 70% predictions). It helped me move from theoretical curiosity to actually improving my probabilistic thinking, and that jump is where the learning happens.